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Deep Red in Nepal: A journey towards Communist Autocracy
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sumedhu
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Posted on 04-24-08 4:13
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Forecasting an election is always hazardous, especially if it happens after 12 years of chaos. The mistake pundits and journalists invariably make is to equate their own preferences with the likely outcome. They then try to cover up an honest mistake with intellectual dishonesty, such as suggesting that the unforeseen outcome is actually a "positive development".
Last week witnessed comic efforts by the Indian Government to atone for its miscalculations in Nepal. Ministers and mandarins who had banked on a fractured verdict did an abrupt U-turn and gushed over the impending coronation of Maoist leader Prachanda in Kathmandu. The onrush of platitudes included suggestions that the old order was decrepit and that Mammon will soon replace Mao as the presiding deity of the new rulers. The implication was clear: wait for the spirit of Deng Xiaoping to overwhelm Mao Zedong Thought.
The dawn of a new wisdom was based on convenient omissions. South Block glossed over a European Union election observation report that "the lack of law and order and poor security environment contributed to a general atmosphere of fear and intimidation and at times undermined the right to campaign freely." In plain language it meant that the Maoists had bullied voters at gunpoint. It also ignored Prime Minister-designate Baburam Bhattarai's boast that the "election result is a beautiful fusion between the bullet and ballot."
Maybe it is best to let bygones be bygones and allow the Maoists an opportunity to change their stripes. Unfortunately, if history is anything to go by, the prospects of those who capture power professing Marxism-Leninism transforming themselves instantly into honourable social-democrats, are extremely remote. Revolutionaries do see the light eventually, but not as long as the pioneers of the revolution are at the helm. Africa is littered with examples of radical nationalists who lost no time subverting the Constitution and turning their countries into one-party autocracies. Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe who "stole an election" last month followed a long tradition of self-professed Marxist-Leninists who believe 'once in power, always in power'.
The transformation of infant democracies into totalitarian regimes follows a pattern. First, there is a united front against a decaying old order. In Nepal, the target is a hidebound monarchy and its emotional hold on the people. Prachanda wants the King out because he seeks uncluttered control over all symbols of Nepali nationhood. It's a precondition for building a personality cult around the new supreme leader. Even a constitutional monarchy will be a hindrance.
Second, by a combination of threats and blandishments, rival parties are inveigled into a power-sharing arrangement centred on the hegemony of the big brother. This invariably leads to the decimation of the junior partners. If the erstwhile Six Party Alliance helps Prachanda mould a Constitution of his choice, they may as well opt for voluntary dissolution. Nepal will move towards de-facto one-party rule. Maoists can imbibe capitalism; they cannot stomach democracy.
Finally, the all-important distinction between the state machinery and the "revolutionary" party is removed. One of the principal objectives of the Maoists is to undermine the professional Nepal Army by incorporating its People's Liberation Army into it. The "reformed" army will pledge its loyalty to President Prachanda and give Maoists the monopoly of fire power that is needed to consolidate political power. At present, the Maoists have just 33 per cent or so of the popular vote; it needs the army to deal with insolent Madhesis and difficult politicians. The Maoist takeover of Nepal is not part of any secret agenda. The Reds have been remarkably candid about what they want. The folly lies in others imagining they don't mean what they say.
courtsey: Swapan Das Gupta ( Times of India)
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sumedhu
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Posted on 04-24-08 4:16
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प्रस्तुत साभार लेखको सारांशमा अन्तिम हरफले दर्शाएको भावमा म अचम्मै गरी केन्द्रित भएको छु । नेपालको दूर्भाग्यको सारांश यही हो :
"Reds have been remarkably candid about what they want. The folly lies in others imagining they don't mean what they say.
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