Untill few months back, there used to be a stalemate between the King and the Maoists.

The Maoists have taken over many places in Nepal, but their revolution is not successful until they take over the capital.

They could not possibly take over the capital because of the Army. The Army is under the kings control and it is impossible for the Maoists to fight the Kings Army in the capital.

SCENE IN THE CAPITAL:
The democratic parties have a lot of supporters and say in the capital BUT they are not strong enough to overthrow the King.

THE MAOIST STRATEGY:
Using the Democratic Parties as a pawn in thier greater scheme of things, the Maoist incite the Democratic Parties to call strikes and large processions, whereby they infiltrate the crowds and force the Kings govt. to attack the public.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS:
The general public believes that the King is corrupt and not a good ruler. So they only need some inciting before they go out in the streets. Once the general consensus is now to get rid of the King who has unjustly killed off peaceful demonstrators and innocent people.

THE AFTERMATH:
The wrath of the crowd in Kathmandu Valley is enough to overthrow the king. The king gets thrown out/killed. The Democratic Parties celebrate for a short time before they start feeling the pressure of the Maoists from all sides of the capital.

Without the Army being controlled by one point of reference, noone can stop the Maoists from taking control of the capital.

THE STRATEGY IS WORKING:
What we need to decide right now is do we want the Maoist to rule us or the King? The democratic party are just wishful thinkers who wish for a utopia but will fail miserably as soon as their fight is over.

WE THE COMMONERS:
We need to see beyond the current situation in Nepal and decide for ourself if Maoists Rule is what we want. If that is the case, we need to go ahead and support the Democratic Party in the street to topple the King. As soon as the King is toppled, these Democratic Parties will be swatted off like flies by the Maoist guns.

Although democracy is something to die for, the consequent Maoist rule would be such an unfortunate irony for the deaths of thousands who are seeking democracy.

PLEASE SPREAD THIS MESSAGE TO AS MANY AS YOU CAN BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE

I couldn't agree more with Zaleem singh and Red alert.
Valid points.
Its very interesting that no one other than Red Alert has brought the brutality done by Maoist.

They killed more people than anyone that I know of in Nepal.
They destroyed the lives of innocent people.

And how did Maoist came? Becuase of these stupid netas...who are coward and have been hiding during protests.

I agree that if King gets away then Maoist can take over easily. Then no more protest.
Even Samudaya.org can not organize a rally in New York if maoist starts rulling the country.

Now that doesn't mean that King is innocent. He is also same dyang ko mula.

But my biggest blame goes to the "kurchi tanne" netas. Do you want the same neta to be prime minister 10 times?

---Anyways lets see what our unlce is going to do...Thats all we are waiting for right???

Mr. Lonely there is no comparision between the Maoist and the King. The Maoist are still forcibly keeping thousands of children in the villages in their army and making them fight their war. Anyone who questions authority is killed.

The king is also responsible for many deaths but in comparision to Maoist rule, I would think that the Kings rule would be less bloodier.

As I have outlined the Maoist Strategy, it's either the Maoist or the King that we have to choose. Politics is a dirty game and you have to choose the lesser of evil. If you don't see this now, you should really question yourself this: If you parents are in Kathmandu, do you really feel comfortable having Maoists ruling? These Maoists are capable of doing anything. If you believe for a moment that the Maoist are serious about the multiparty democracy, think about it - will they be willing to give up more than 50% of the country that they already have strong hold on just for the sake of multi party democracy? They believe in communism, NOT multiparty democracy.

Another royal ass licker called has got a new nickname and is barking again loudly in sajha.

I am neither with king nor with maoists, but I feel we certainly have to welcome any of them if they decide to commit for multiparty democracy.

It's not the question of chosing the lesser of the evils. The king said that he will restore multiparty democracy during his takeover, but he lied and all he is doing now is imposing his autocratic rule. If he continues, he is going to get ousted. Tomorrow if maoists derrail from their conviction towards multiparty democracy, they will have to pay the price too. I don't think we have to chose either king or maoists. If both agree to stay within the periphery of multiparty democracy, both can co-exist although I have to say it is highly unlikely.

Gautam B my posting is not about ass licking. Maybe you are all to familiar and professional in that field but I would appreciate if you could keep your attributes to yourself and start discussing instead of dissing.

Prachanda's ass lickers are going to come out in this thread and try to brand me as a royal chamcha. I have already made myself clear that I don't support the king, I just dislike the Maoist much more than the King.

Prachanda's ass lickers please spare yourself the trouble.

"Tomorrow if maoists derrail from their conviction towards multiparty democracy, they will have to pay the price too."

Mr Lonely, can you imagine how long it will take to remove the Maoists? Do you even think it will be possible once they have a stronghold? Maoists are known killers and branded as terrorists. Putting your faith in Maoists is very naive to say the least.

We should not help in letting the terrorists come into power! That is absolutely horrendous to even think about this kind of logic.

can you imagine how long it will take to remove the Maoists?
=================
That is another issue, but that does not make enough sense anyways to bear with the autocracy of King G.
It is not logical to think that monarchy is checking the maoists from converting their plans into action. They are equally as malignant as today with monarchy as they will be tomorrow without it, if they don't decide to take part in the mainstream politics and continue to spread terrorism. That's not leading them to anywhere and they know it too, or at least have realized now.

Untill few months back, there used to be a stalemate between the King and the Maoists.
FACT
The Maoists have taken over many places in Nepal, but their revolution is not successful until they take over the capital. FACT

They could not possibly take over the capital because of the Army. The Army is under the kings control and it is impossible for the Maoists to fight the Kings Army in the capital. FACT

SCENE IN THE CAPITAL:
The democratic parties have a lot of supporters and say in the capital BUT they are not strong enough to overthrow the King. FICTION
THE MAOIST STRATEGY:
Using the Democratic Parties as a pawn in thier greater scheme of things, the Maoist incite the Democratic Parties to call strikes and large processions, whereby they infiltrate the crowds and force the Kings govt. to attack the public. (THIS IS YOUR OPINION....LIKE THAT OF KAMAL THAPA....NOT BASED ON FACTS...)

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS:
The general public believes that the King is corrupt and not a good ruler. (FACT)
So they only need some inciting before they go out in the streets. (NOPE....THEY WAITED AND WAITED AND WAITED...THEY WENT TO THE STREET BECAUSE ENOUGH IS ENOUGH....
Once the general consensus is now to get rid of the King who has unjustly killed off peaceful demonstrators and innocent people. TRUE
THE AFTERMATH:
The wrath of the crowd in Kathmandu Valley is enough to overthrow the king. TRUE
The king gets thrown out/killed.
The Democratic Parties celebrate for a short time before they start feeling the pressure of the Maoists from all sides of the capital. FICTION

Without the Army being controlled by one point of reference, noone can stop the Maoists from taking control of the capital. FICTION

THE STRATEGY IS WORKING:
What we need to decide right now is do we want the Maoist to rule us or the King? NEITHER....WE WANT TO RULE OURSELVES..JANATA JANARDAN....

The democratic party are just wishful thinkers who wish for a utopia but will fail miserably as soon as their fight is over. MAY BE

WE THE COMMONERS:
We need to see beyond the current situation in Nepal and decide for ourself if Maoists Rule is what we want. NO WE DON'T
If that is the case, we need to go ahead and support the Democratic Party in the street to topple the King. WE WANT PEACE AND DEMOCRACY
As soon as the King is toppled, these Democratic Parties will be swatted off like flies by the Maoist guns. NO MAOIST ARE NEPALESE TOO...YOU ARE TALKING AS IF THEY ARE FOREIGNERS....THEY ARE ALSO FIGHTING FOR PEOPLE'S RIGHT...MAOIST KA SENA....SAHI SENA JASTA BHEDA CHHAINAN GOLI HANN BHANNE BITTIKAI JALAI PANI HANNE..

Although democracy is something to die for, the consequent Maoist rule would be such an unfortunate irony for the deaths of thousands who are seeking democracy.
QUESTIONABLE

PLEASE SPREAD THIS MESSAGE TO AS MANY AS YOU CAN BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE

Red Alert , you are thinking too much of the future. Who knows what's going to happen. You always seem to ask What if maoist take control? If If If It's always If. Our first job is to take the king down, with him ruling the government we have no other option, but to fill his stomach with our money. Soi we all know he has to go. then after that atleast people won't be loyal to one group, we will have different groups, and we can choose them.

Oey RedAlert,

Shove your propoganda up your a$$ and keep quiet. Do not try to protect your hijada government act.

Do you think lawyers are maoist? Do you think journalists are maoist? Then why the F is your government and its chamchas shooting them.

They do not have guts to fight with maoist, tyanha bata dar le puchar lukayera bhagne ani yanha sida sada janta lai ris pokhne hijada haru

prajatantra--so are you supporting maoist?
night crawler--if king goes down then who do you want Nepal to be ruled and give some justification.

I am not writing anything PRO king or any sort of propaganda. I am simply uncovering the maoist strategy to people who are interested in knowing it. If you don't believe it, I can't force it down your throat. If you'd rather be wishful thinking that the current fight is going to give democracy, dream on, keep on hoping, until the day you realize that it's too late.

I feel sad for all those innocent people who have taken to the streets to fight for democracy, but indirectly being the pawns of the grand Maoist Strategy. Their lifes will be lost for something that's must worse than what they were fighting against.

Some of you guys are blinded by the greed for democracy that you are acting like Gyane's totalitarian regime. Democracy means everyone's voice needs to be heard. Don't show double standards.

coolnepal - future holds the key for who will rule nepal. We all goodwishers hope that it will be someone honest and strong, But I know there will be a lot of trial and error for a good leader to be around. It is still much better than the corrupted, selfish shah dynasty ruling our nation permanently.

Nightcrawler I don't think Maoist rule will allow for any trial and errors. You make an error and you'll be dead under your great leader Prachanda. Sorry, the 'you' here is more for blind supporters of democracy, who will be handing Prachanda the rule of the country in a silver platter.

then you don't want to make an ERROR do you? There you go RED ALERT the word "ERROR". If you are a good politician you should not be making ERRORS. Can't you see that is the problem the country is facing. Because of this errors our counry is in big crisis. cuz of this errors we all have to suffer.

How about all Nepalese abroad go to Nepal and do something and start protesting and form our own government?

What do you think about that? Do we all have that kind of guts? I doubt that.

Answer to red alert:

Red Alert you have raised few authentic questions, but your analysis is more or less similar to that of the royalist propaganda machines' and mercenary's self-protection campaign. Nothing new to me at all.

It sounds like a frantic attempt to save the falling monarchy, by creating confusion amongst the revolutionaries (of the parties excluding the maoists and the civil society). (I don't consider the maoists guerrillas as true revolutionaries because they are backed with violence)
Your attempt to spread the hoax of a maoists takeover after the fall of the present regime is definitely not going to work.

The best option for the beleagured monarchy, if it wants to survive, is to declare the dissolution of the present government, ask the SPA to form an interim government, authorise them unconditionally to have dialogue with the maoists and accept the constituent assembly election. As of today, the king still has the chance to play a positive role. You better advise him to do so if you want to see the king remain for a while, or who knows- forever if the CA election approves the continuation of any form of monarchy? (As you know still there are many people who are advocationg for constitutional/ceremonial monarchy-including the big GIRIJA!). But mind you, the King has himself written the script of his downfall and the more days he sticks with the present policy, the more the chances are for the inception of a republic Nepal. Better, write something to put pressure on your beloved king.

Now come to the maoists fear factor. There is certainly a chance that maoists will try to take advantage of any new political scenario to the maximum. They might totally back off from the commitment to republican democracy some day. But that is just a speculation, one out of many possibilities.

1.You must know that the SPA leaders have had extensive talks with the maoists leadership in recent months. Those talks were not only about releasing a 12-point understanding. Political leaders and maoists leaders have, I am sure they have, discussed about the modalities of possible political frameworks already. They have discussed about what to do if and when the monarchy fell. Mind you guys, our leaders are not as dumb as some of you are thinking. There is a clear cut understanding between them, which is not made public because of the reluctance of some SPA leaders to embrace republican agenda publicly and immidiately, on how to move towards a constituent assembly. You will see the results as the drama unfolds.

2.No doubt that the maoists rebellion is very much responsible to build the current public opinion against the king. However, the maoists leadership also knows that, they are the democratic parties and the civil society who have decisively convinced the majority people against monarchy. They know that more people were up for a republican state in one year with the parties' change of policy ,than the numbers the maoists could convince in more than ten years through violent means. Without for participatory democratic framework, Baburam Bhattarai and Prachanda know that, people are not going to accept them. The worlds political balance is also against their authoritarian ideology. They know the obstacles at imposing a North Korea style communism in the country, not less than us. Believe me they are seasoned politicians unlike us! So there's no need to fear that the Maos will impose a maoists/stalinist rule in Nepal. Their political gurus are moderate Indian communists and I doubt they will try the Chinese or the Soviet styles of the early 20th century. 20th century communism is dead.

3. Power of a state rests on people. Nepalese, who are today in a position to dismantle the four hundred years old monarchy, are capable of dismantling any authoritarian regime tommorrow. Even if the maoists captured the capital and tried to impose their rule in their country, which I don't believe they can ever, they are set to fail very soon. Neither they have the people nor the apparatus to run a country single handedly. There are lot more NC or UML or RPP activists than the committed maoists activists in Nepal. There are thousands of maoists cadres who would readily abandon their weapons if the leadership was not forceful at them, or if they had chances to rehabilitate. The bottom line is they are simply not capable of running a country in the 21st century. If they tried it, they will utterly fail. Any attempts of them to break the agreement with the SPA will be suicidal for themselves.

Hence, forget about maoists take over. Dismantle the tyranny of Gyanendra. There will certainly be some sort of vaccuum for a period of time. But you know what? खुर्सानी बिना भतेर अड्किन्न. Nepal can cope without the King as easily as any nation that have been transformed from a kingdom to a republican state. There are hundreds in the past centuries. There are dozens in the past decades.
And believe in yourself, as I believe in myself. We are the future of the country. Will we let dictatorship (of any sort) prevail over our country? Hell NO.

Join us man, if you are a general Nepal like me, to support the people's movement :)

*Join us man, if you are a general Nepali like me, to support the people's movement :)

And read this to figure out how desperately the government is trying to link the maoists with the SPA, all for promoting it's wicked propaganda:

घुसपैठको प्रचारको रहस्य

- http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnepalinews.php?nid=70896

माओवादीको सशस्त्र घुसपैठ प्रचार गर्ने सरकारी चालबाजीको रहस्य खुल्दै गएको छ । त्यस्तो घुसपैठको दाबी गर्दै सरकारले जनआन्दोलन दबाउन अत्यधिक बल प्रयोग गरेको अब कतै लुकेन । माओवादी घुसपैठ पुष्टि गर्न सरकारले आफैं सुरक्षाकर्मीलाई आन्दोलन भड्काउन प्रयोग गरेका एकपछि अर्को घटना प्रमाण बन्दै गएका छन् । आफ्नै घुसपैठमार्फत सरकारले आन्दोलनलाई हिंसात्मक बनाउन थालिसकेको छ । आन्दोलनका क्रममा माओवादीको सशस्त्र उपस्थिति मरिमेटी दाबी गर्न बाध्य हुनु उसको नितान्त राजनीतिक स्वार्थ बन्न पुगेको छ ।
सुरक्षाफौजको त्रासदीपूर्ण प्रयोग मंगलबार राजधानीको गोंगबुमा गरिएको छ जहाँ नेपाल प्रहरीका एआईजी रूपसागर मोक्तानको निवासबाट सयौं राउन्ड गोली हान्न लगाएर सरकारले आतंककारी घुसपैठको नाटक रचना गरेको खुल्न पुग्यो । एआईजी निवासबाट सुरक्षाकर्मी आफैंले प्रदर्शनकारीहरूतिर अन्धाधुन्ध गोली हानेपछि त्यसलाई माओवादीको गोली भन्ने प्रचार गरी त्यहाँ खटिएका सुरक्षा इकाईहरूले त्यसैअनुसार भिडन्तका लागि पोजिसन लिनु, माओवादी आयो भन्ने प्रचार गर्नु, प्रदर्शकारीहरूतिर गोली हान्नु र पछि त्यही निवासभित्र पसेका अधिकृतहरू आफैंले पुनः गोली चलाउन दिनु त्यसको प्रमाण हो । त्यही बेलातिर उता सिंहदरबारभित्र सरकारी प्रवक्ता 'गोंगबुमा माओवादीले गोली हानेको' प्रचार गर्दै थिए । दुई दिनअघिमात्र गृहमन्त्रीले त्यही क्षेत्रमा 'एक पूर्वडीएसपीको घरमा गोली लागेको' दाबी गरेका थिए । त्यसैगरी सोमबार राति महाराजगन्ज शिक्षण अस्पतालको छात्रावासमा पसेर चिकित्सा विद्यार्थीहरूलाई घाइते बनाउने प्रहरी आफैं अघिल्लो दिन ढुंगामुढा गर्न सादा पोसाकमा आएर उक्साइरहेका थिए ।

सरकारको यो षड्यन्त्रपूर्ण चालले राजधानीलगायत प्रमुख सहरहरू हिंसात्मक हुन थालेका छन् । आफ्नो पेसागत कर्तव्यविपरीत हिंसामा उत्रिनु सुरक्षा निकाय तथा तिनका अधिकारीहरू स्वयं पनि कडा कानुनी सजायको भागिदार बन्नु हो । सुरक्षा निकायले आफ्ना सीमा, कर्तव्य र पेसागत धर्म आफैं बुझ्नुपर्छ र त्यसैअनुसार शान्तिसुरक्षामा खटिनुपर्छ । तर कैयौं घटनामा सुरक्षाकर्मी आफैं राजनीतिक आन्दोलनलाई दमन गर्न उत्रेका छन् । सरकार यो आन्दोलनलाई आतंकवादका रूपमा हेर्छ । आन्दोलन र आतंक छुट्याउने र त्यसैअनुसार व्यवहार गर्ने सुरक्षा निकायको धर्म हुनुपर्छ । तर सुरक्षा अधिकारीहरू सरकारी राजनीतिक स्वार्थको मतियार हुन थाल्नु विडम्बनापूर्ण छ ।

स्थिति भड्काउने, आन्दोलनलाई अशान्त पार्ने र माओवादीको सशस्त्र सहभागिता आफैं देखाई सुरक्षाफौजको दुरुपयोग गर्ने यो षड्यन्त्र अत्यन्त भत्र्सनायोग्य छ । उसको यो चरम शैलीको कारबाही अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय फौजदारी अभियोगका लागि आधार बन्दै गएको छ । सुरक्षाफौजको दुरुपयोगले जनआन्दोलनलाई यतिसारो हिंसात्मक बनाएको घटना समकालीन विश्वका विरलै तानाशाही राज्यहरूमा भेटिन्छ । सुरक्षा दमनका लागि आफैं घुसपैठ गर्ने यसस्तरको खतरनाक प्रपञ्चका रचनाकार तथा मतियारहरू कानुनी शासन व्यवस्था बहाल भएपछि सोझै कारबाहीका भागिदार बन्नुपर्ने छ ।

पहिलो जनआन्दोलनपछिको मल्लिक आयोगले दिएको प्रतिवेदन कारबाही नभएजस्तो अब हुनेछैन । त्यतिबेला दमन गर्नेहरू कारबाहीको सट्टा उल्टै कतिपय पुरस्कृत हुन पुगेको आक्रोश जनतामा छ । परिवर्तनकारी दलहरूले पनि बुझ्नुपर्छ, तिनको यो आन्दोलनलाई हिंसात्मक बनाउने, निःशस्त्र प्रदर्शनकारीलाई हत्या गर्ने, सिकिस्त घाइते तुल्याउने तथा व्यापक बल प्रयोग गरी शारीरिक-मानसिक यातना दिनेहरूको अभिलेख राखिनुपर्छ । र, दलहरूले उच्चस्तरीय आयोग गठन गरी त्यसका आधारमा सख्त कानुनी कारबाही गरिनेबारे आम नागरिकलाई अहिल्यै विश्वस्त तुल्याउनुपर्छ । स्वतन्त्र सञ्चारमाध्यम तथा मानव अधिकार अनुगमनकर्ताहरूको उपस्थितिमै समेत यसस्तरको दमन गर्नेहरूलाई भोलि कानुनी दण्ड दिनु न्यायपूर्ण समाज स्थापना गर्न चाहनेहरूको मुख्य जिम्मेवारी हुनुपर्छ ।

guys, just a question, if maoists were committed to multiparty-democracy, why did they start guerrilla warfare in the first place?

I don't believe that the Maoists have any grand strategy as such.

Their strategy is to EXPLOIT everything and everybody to their advantage
at all times.

A theory

(But first, this: The benefit of posting this on an OPEN site like this is that this will hopefully invite agreements, disagreements, modifications, objecttions, criticisms
and all that -- all of which -- as I have ALWAYS maintained -- add up to hallmarks
of a democratic exercise. I am NOT someone who likes to preach to the choir, and
get easy wah-wah's . . . the challenge is NOT to be dogmatic, but to keep an open-mind about what appears to explain what is happening)

OK, then:

The Maoists have NOT directly touched upon a critical mass of Nepal's middle- to upper-middle citizens, both ideologically and politically.

These non-poor (earning, let's say, a family income of over 3000 USD per YEAR: that's roughly 210,000 rupees per year) people have 'outward orientation' in that they want to leave the country, and not stay behind.

Yes, because of the Maoist-led Bandhas, their vegetable-supplies were affected; some could not go back for a visit to their ancestral villages; some could not work on Bandha days, and so forth. By and large, in terms of death-numbers, these groups have NOT paid DIRECT prices . . . they have simply bore some inconveniences.

That is why, the death of almost 15,000 Nepalis does NOT really register all that much of a shock in any part of Kathmandu. It simply brings a sense of "hasn't-happened-this-to-my-family" sort of a far-away resignation.

How many Sajha posters, for instance, have had their immediate family members killed by the Maoists? Hardly any, I would think.

In contrast, the Maoists (just as the security forces) have been brutal to the poor,
who remain VOICELESS and DEFENCELSS. The Maoists scratch one journalist, and the
entire Global Federation of Journalists starts breathing fire, leaving the Maoists no choice but to issue a weak apology. But when the Maoists kill school teachers, there emerges no Nepal Federation of Schoolteachers, let alone a global federation of any sort, to put pressure on the Maoists. This is just an observation.

So, based on this observations, a simple identity is this:

1) Poor people = can be crushed by the Maoists.
2) Poor people = can be crushed by the state forces.

Result = nothing really happens, except a few halla here and there by human rights people. This has been going on for the last several years.

BUT

relatively rich people in KTM = left, by and large alone, by the Maoists except to extort money now and then.

relatively rich people in KTM = INCREASINGLY hammered by the king's rule (in terms of paying for security costs, fewer opportunities for business, trade and growthetc.

The closing of the US visa section, for instance, hurts these groups the most, and
they'll lash out at the king for this, among other things.

Given these, the way ahead (and I have no idea what's really ahead, so I offer some guesses):

1) The king's short-term strategy, assuming self-preservation, is to pacify the rich,
while ignore the poor. That will buy him some time.

2) The parties' short-term strategy, assuming they are after a chance to wield some power, is to negotiate a deal with the king in some manner, maybe with Deuba as
the next PM.

3) The Maoists' short-term strategy, assuming they want to wield more influence, is to keep on hurting the poor (that shows that they are alive and well) and keep the parties in a state of agitation. If the state forces themselves do this service (like they appear to be doing), then, all the better. That means, Maoists resources can be saved for now -- while letting a spontaneous fanning of the fights that have erupted erupt between 1) and 2) above.

Bottom line?
Expect a few years of confusion and uncertainty ahead.
As Yogi B famously said, "It ain't over, until it's over"

oohi
ashu