From the Economist

North Korea blasts away hopes of engagement

Oct 9th 2006 | TOKYO
From Economist.com
The isolated state comes of age as a nuclear power, but the consequences could be all negative for Kim Jong Il



FOLLOWING through on a promise it made in the United Nations only last week, North Korea exploded a nuclear device on Monday October 9th deep under a mountain in north-eastern Hamgyong province. The regime of Kim Jong Il immediately declared that its nuclear test would serve to defend “the peace and stability on the Korean pensinsula and in the area around it.” On the contrary, the provocation has brought international condemnation and destabilised regional security, even raising the prospect of an arms race in which neighbours such as Japan and South Korea may consider developing nuclear weapons of their own.

In the near term, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are more likely to pose a greater risk to North Koreans than to the neighbours. The country is reckoned to have reprocessed enough weapons-grade plutonium to make several bombs (it has also admitted to a programme for enriching uranium). The bombs, however, are fairly crude—in the underground test, the nuclear reaction was probably triggered by a large conventional charge. Such a bomb, in other words, is not easily transportable; North Korea is still some way from being able to miniaturise nuclear weapons to use on missiles or even to drop from planes. Unusual means of delivery, such as a shipping container, would be needed if North Korea’s were to be used in anger. So the immediate threats from North Korea’s new capability come from radioactive leaks into the atmosphere and North Korea’s groundwater.

Yet an early international consequence of the test is likely to be the swift burial of the so-called six-party talks, involving China, South Korea, Japan, America and Russia. These talks, which have staggered on for ages, were meant to forestall North Korea going nuclear, dangling aid and security guarantees before Mr Kim’s ghastly regime in return for a verifiable dismantling of his nuclear programmes. However, the multilateral diplomacy that this forum offered never worked. China, not wanting North Korean problems to spill over the Chinese border, and South Korea, wedded to engagement at almost any cost, feared that putting pressure on North Korea would lead to instability. Meanwhile, the administration of President George Bush, though occasionally sounding tough, allowed the six-party talks to drift, its mind on challenges elsewhere, notably Iraq. Most of all, Mr Kim himself, though blaming America for tensions, had no intention of giving up his nuclear programmes.

Here, Mr Kim, feeling the pinch of financial sanctions and dissatisfied with the region he sees outside his brutalised country—a region that is prosperous, capitalist and policed by American might—may have miscalculated. Rather than increasing North Korea’s advantage, its new nuclear capability may unite opposition. China, already angry at North Korea’s missile tests in July (in an unprecedented step, it signed on to a UN resolution condemning North Korea and imposing limited sanctions), lambasted its nuclear test. South Korea’s “sunshine policy” towards the north now seems very hard to sustain—on October 9th the government halted a shipment of food and put troops on high alert. Meanwhile, North Korea’s provocations have made it much easier for Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to bury longstanding differences on summit trips to Beijing and Seoul on October 8th and 9th. Neighbours now have a common desire to stop the potential instability—economic as well as military—that a nuclear North Korea might bring.

The action will now move to the UN Security Council. Australia has already said it will advocate tougher UN sanctions against North Korea, blocking North Korean funds and limiting the ability of North Koreans to travel. America will certainly push for the tougher policing of ships and planes that might be carrying weapons technology. More efforts will be made to go after Mr Kim’s own business empire, known as Division 39, that is crucial to the dictator for keeping the North Korean regime sweet. Countries with diplomatic relations may withdraw ambassadors. Already, the international attitude towards Mr Kim is turning from half-hearted engagement to what is already being called “malign neglect”.

A Japanese seismograph shown here picking up seismic waves from the explosion.

In a way it is a good news that goes against USA hegemony

IT's time for JAPAN to be Nuclear power...and Bomb IRAN.

A blast akin to this nature happened in the Yanggang province (North Korea) bordering to china exactly 2 years ago (in september of 2004). While US secretary of state, Colin Powell said he did not believe that the blast was connected to North Korea's nuclear programme, the latter along with their closest ally, China remained silent.

North Korea's chief delegate to the United Nations General Assembly said the danger of war on the Korean peninsula is growing. Choe Su Hon, North Korea's vice-foreign minister, said U.S. moves to isolate and stifle North Korea are increasing the danger of war.

Remember, they just conducted a series of seven missile tests in the July of this year.

Click here to read more on what's cooking in the communist region in the last few years.

LooTe

An interesting perspective from the Sydney Morning Herald


Ultimate answer delivered to Washington

Hamish McDonald Asia-Pacific Editor
October 10, 2006

COMMENT



KIM JONG-IL seems to have timed his nuclear test for maximum embarrassment in Washington, before the congressional mid-term elections next month.

It is the first nuclear break-out in the "Axis of Evil" declared by the US President, George Bush, in January 2002, but Washington has been chasing non-existent weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and future ones in Iran.

Intent on showing it was tougher than the Clinton administration, which accepted a North Korean nuclear freeze in 1994, the Bush team's effort has been counterproductive.

The 2002 speech, and the verbal confrontation in Pyongyang by Bush's envoy James Kelly in October that year, resulted in Kim deciding to go nuclear as quickly as possible.

He did so quite legally, by formally withdrawing from the UN nuclear non-proliferation treaty, as all members are entitled to do, and keeping everyone informed about progress later: the reprocessing of fuel rods, the fabrication of nuclear cores, and now an underground explosion.

Along the way, Pyongyang has been offering to give it all up, as long as it gets diplomatic recognition, security guarantees and economic aid. It seemed desperate to talk directly to the Americans.

Of course it wanted a lot of the benefits before it scrapped its nuclear weapons, and still insisted on its right to a civil nuclear power program, so its sincerity was something to be tested and verified. But direct talks might have got somewhere, just as a direct dialogue between the Americans and the Iranian leadership might be helpful and certainly would do no harm.

Kim may have pushed his brinkmanship too far for that now, and while he waits for his scientists to develop nuclear weapons, he may have to tread warily to avoid false nuclear alarms. As Jeffrey Robertson, a foreign policy and defence analyst at the Federal Parliamentary Library points out in a new research paper, the test may remove much of North Korea's negotiating strength.

"North Korea uses strategic ambiguity and an image of irrationality to enhance its strength in negotiations," Robertson said. "Testing a nuclear device would remove this ambiguity and substantially restrain the ability of North Korea to continue its image of irrationality."

Actually, Kim is a lot more rational than his 1950s retro-regime looks, and will see that his nuclear options are not so wide, beyond enhanced basic deterrence against attack.

His scientists don't seem to have progressed very far with the uranium enrichment centrifuges transferred to them by the renegade Pakistani, A. Q. Khan.

So they are probably unable to make use of North Korea's quite abundant reserves of natural uranium, restricting their source of fissionable material to the limited amount of plutonium in the spent fuel of their small Soviet-supplied reactor. This suggests that a major fear of the Western powers - that Pyongyang would get into a clandestine export trade of fissile material, or even bombs, to non-state groups such as al-Qaeda - is exaggerated.

While it has carried on a thriving and quite legal trade in ballistic missiles, Pyongyang is not known to have sold its other mass-destruction products, the chemical and perhaps biological weapons it has kept in stock since the Korean War.

Any hint of nuclear material sales to terrorists would bring military intervention by the West, and Kim is probably wise enough to see that.

His main worry, meanwhile, would be the development of a Chinese perception that he is pushing Japan to go nuclear, or that his intransigence is leading America to punish Beijing by freeing Taiwan.

well, i guess it's the hypocricies in the part of US which is inviting NK to go against the nuclear proliferation treaty. it's quite obvious that east are not pleased with US move to attack middle east without robust planning to capture the weapons of mass destruction. they are acting a bit too smart to shun NK and it's close ally, China down at the same time.

On a personal note, i am worried that failure of conflcit resolution between east communst regime and US can very well result in mammoth abhorrence and hence initiate the third world war.

LooTe

which is inviting NK to go against the nuclear *proliferation treaty

read that as non-proliferation

phew! that was a terrible typo !

LooTe

Just for thoughts:

US has Nuclear bomb so are UK, India, China, France, Russia
and now North Korea.
guess what Nepal has?
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Nepal has unlimited natural made Ghoo Bomb

What do you think guys about this nuclear test?
Is there gonna be a war?
Can US attack NK as they did in IRAQ?
Is that day possible when King Jong Il will be begging on his knees for his life while playing hide and seek in his own land as Mr. Sadaam did?
I hope to get more comments on this.

Sorry...not King Jong Il.....Kim Jong Il

btw have you guys watched the movie TEAM AMERICA?

Lakh_ma_ek,

I am not that well-read on the issue, but here's my two cents:

1. I can't speak for all, so here's what I, isolated freak, think of the issue:

On the tests:

NK's test is definately not good for the NEA (North East Asia) region, or for NK itself. Kim Il Jung gravely miscalculated the impact it will have on NK because of the tests. First, it will unite (it already has- Shinzo Abe's China visit does signal something!) China and Japan, the two East Asian giants. Also it will force (some analysts predict that it has already happened) China to change its special policy vis-a-vis NK. Now with America already on its bad side, and China denouncing NK's tests as "brazen and flagrant (violation of Prolifiration regime)" [1]. Kim junior's euphoria after having successfully tested the deadly bomb is not going to last for long. So far the Chinese leadership protected economically and politically the North Korean regime thinking that it will not go against its benefactor's interests, but now Kim will probably be "taught a lesson" [2] by China, which at this point mean, withdrawing economic support and approving the American led sanctions etc.

Japan is not likely to stay quiet. Japan has already denounced it strongly. Shinzo Abe is not a pacifist, he is a nationalist. If we believe Nicholas Kristoff, Japan now has the perfect excuse to create its own full-fledged military and more importantly, test its own nuclear weapons. According to some security analysts, if Japan desires to have nuclear weapon, it can have it in 2 months time. Japan's H2 and H2A missiles can be converted into nuclear warheads in no time, and the Japanese leadership has always been vague on Japan acquiring nuclcear weapons [3]. What NK's test has achieved is, it has helped in uniting the majority (or the significant minority, depending on one's views) of Japanese people in supporting the nationalistic revival in Japan.

If Japan decides to join the nuclear club, then we will see the classic European pre 1st world war security dillemma, arms race at work in East and South Asia. China will be forced to update its arsenal, which means India will be forced to update its arsenal, and to preserve the balance of power, Pakistan will be forced to update its arsenal. This is indeed not a good sign.

2. Is there going to be a war?

Well, in the short run, no. No one knows what will happen in the long run. Maybe NK will be given the great power status it desires, and things will cool down, or maybe it will lead to a arms race like I wrote above. At this point, its not possible to tell what is going to happen in the long run. But I personally see no prospects of a full-fledged war soon in the Korean Peninsula.

3. I don't think Mr Kim will be on his knees pleading for his life or hiding like a rat like Saddam in the short run. Nobody can tell what will happen in the long run. Maybe the NK people will choose a new sensible leader..

Notes:

1. This is the first time China has used this phrase in its dealings with North Korea. For more, today's NYT.

2. When Vietnam invaded Cambodia in the late 70s, Deng Xiaoping told a group of reporters in Singapore that Vietnam will be taught a lesson.. and it was taught a lesson by China. Why use the word teach: Chinese culture like any Asian culture is based on the concept of hierarchy. The younger ones should be mindful to their elders' wishes. When it comes to dealing with other coutries, especially the neighboring countries, Chinese hope that they (neighboring countries) be at least mindful to China's security interersts. China's interests is not served by the NK leadership by tesing the bomb.

3. "My Country Right or Wrong", Nicholas Kristoff in Nicholas Kristoff and Sheryll Wu Dunn, "Thunder from the East: Portrait of a Rising Asia." This essay is the best essay in that book.

Feel free to disagree.

First, it will unite (it already has- Shinzo Abe's China visit does signal something!) China and Japan, the two East Asian giants. = First, in the short run n, it will unite (it already has- Shinzo Abe's China visit does signal something!) China and Japan, the two East Asian giants.

View/Share this post only

http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/article/0,,1891929,00.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/japan/story/0,,1891975,00.html

Guardian... probably one of the best newspapers in the world. Amazing analyses.

NYT isn't bad either.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/world/asia/10china.html

Loote,

"On a personal note, i am worried that failure of conflcit resolution between east communst regime and US can very well result in mammoth abhorrence and hence initiate the third world war. "

I didn't understand what you mean by this. What conflict? What east european communist regime? If I am not mistaken (the chances are I am mistaken) there's hardly any communist regime left in eastern Europe now. Maybe I am a bit slow in realizing that the cold war has already ended, or -- I highly doubt this and I do hope you will excuse my arrogance-- you are still reading the 80s articles on the web. :-)

oh i read it wrong, it was my arrogance indeed. But the east communist regime, despite all its nuclear shows and all that, is not in a position to fight America. :-)

Again, I misread your east as east european and I deeply regret the above comments.

blame it on carlseberg-- probbaly (not) one of the best beers.

While Bush was busy sucuring Oil fields for Exxon, NK was busy building Nukes. While he waived the frameworks' right to inspect development of plutonium in NK in 2002, he was preparing to go to war with Iraq. While Iraq possesed no imminent danger, NK clearly does and now the next coming weeks will go in dramatizing the event that it will bulldozed yet another Bush propaganda for US audience to gulp with media bombardment of the self-proclaimed war on terror. Come Nov. Karl Rove has already penned his strategy down. Just wait till be brings to table what nobody has even thought of, his gulag of fear factors. The US population will bow into it and the scandal filled Rubber Stamp Republican Congress will control both house and senate. Korean Peninsula next, Rummy and Cheney go back to work. Rove, job well done. Korean Peninsula becomes a mighty exciting Northern Lights of spectacular shock and awe. After all, 30,000 Soldiers readily stationed have some job to do. Next stop Pyongyang. Thank you all.

good obervation there isolated freak!

while i tend to agree with you on most of your points, i still don't buy the argument that china will support US in shunning down NK in the long run. please allow me some privilege to be a bit speculative at this moment. china have blatantly condemned the nuke test but it does NOT give any signal at the moment that they will support US, if a war is going to take place.

US will have double incentive if they are going to attack NK. time and again, US have displayed their double standards. we all know how much rational it was to attack afghanistan and iraq, had capturing the weapon of mass destruction been the only motive for US. but there were ego, imperialism and greed for resources equally involved behind that.

US will be happy and proud to attack NK, not only for nuclear non-proliferation reasaon but also to shun down communism from the east. while china may support US in the former rationale, they would refrain or might even lend support to NK as far as preserving communism in the east at status quo is concerned.

LooTe

That crazy korean bastard should be taught a lesson.BomB is ass.

http://www.slate.com/id/2151216/?GT1=8702

f*Uck you mother fugger and faggots. what did North Korean did to you that you are cursing them. Just because the NOrth Korean deveope NUKE means you don't have to be jealous. we should be happy. fu*king morons and faggots. North Korean has shown great courage and will. they show the spirit of United people led by one man.
US of Assholes also have NUKE. Dhotis also have NUKE. did you ever curse these faggots countries.
NO. listen to yourself sometimes. don't always follow US of Assholes and its allies. BUsh is taking you people to his BUSH!