There was a big struggle between Ranas and Rajas in 2007 revolution which ranas got defeated. The NRA today is of Ranas only. But the two force joined and here is the situation, Rajas and Ranas are togather again. The Question for how long will the ranas and rajas be in same quorum?
Who is controling who? Are the Ranas driving the bus or the Rajas? If the whole movement is to uproot the autocracy then it not just the Rajas who abused the system, the main culprits are these Ranas who one way or the other relate themselves to the Palace and expolit all the system.
Every one is singing the countdown of the end of the monarchy, and I believe things are on the way.
1) Government has no control of land more than 30% of Nepal no mater what they boast
2) The morale of the police and army is highly down
3) The seven non-armed Political Parties are causing all the demonstrations
4) Maoist are attacking the army at their will, whever and whereever they want which is a huge strategic bonus for the maoist.
5) No mater what card Nepal plays China has been trying to avoid any involvement with any of the group, neither King, parties nor maoists.
6) India has been reconsidering its Two Pillar theory, treating Monarchy as one Pillar and Multi party democracy as another means that its heading toward disliking monarchy.
7) India has been looking for a reason to get mad at nepal, recently the issue of payment of arms was shown for reinbursement of the Custom taxes.
8) Gyanendra never did nor had a chance to improve the relation with India. He could not perform anything that told the Indian Government what a neighbor he is
9) US always prefered the king in Nepal, because it becomes a lot easier for US that small countries like Nepal have a permanent head of state, so that it has to deal with one person, not a different one every time.
10) UN is moving towards impsosing sanctions for Nepal, in order to pressurize the king
11) UN is ready to send the Nepalese troops back showing that RNA does not honor Human rights at home, how can it be sent to guard human rights of others. Mind you this has been one of the major sources for funding for RNA.
12) The Human Rights issue will hamper relation of US also because it will be bound to stop helping the king.
13) Earlier, to tell something bad abou the king, it used to be like "who would bell the cat" but since Prachanda has already said "King would be executed or Exiled" the ice has been broken. Now there will be these words in every body's mouth that the king would be executed or exiled
14) The resources and capital Government currently has will not be sufficient to run the country even till July, the Government would become bankrupt.
From all the above points consider the situation of the king, he is messed up from all sides. And of all, he should be scard of Paras Too. Because it was Paras who gave him this throne massacering all Birendra's family. He know Paras is capable of killing him too. The RNA same thing, it RNA can kill the then King and his family why cant it kill Gyanendra too? Performing Pooja in Bhadrakali would indicate that RNA and King are serious to maintain whatever they have, they are ready for bloodshed. Is the king holding the RNA or is the RNA holding the king from collapsing, because in couple of month's time RNA will not have any money to pay to its soldiers, there will be no RNA.
Looking from high level, if the king is smart enough, he would declare that he will call the assembly back, and let parties form new government. There will be general concensus and the people will select monarchy with minimum power. All the power will be transfered to the multiparty, which maoists will have to drop their weapons if they stick to their words. The king will have to remain idle, RNA will be re-organised with maoist army ( the maoist will have minimum condition for formation of joined army).
If not then King is going to play some kind of stupid game, there will be heavy blodshed, sanctions, chaos, RNA will continue abuse human rights, Rapes, etc. Maoists will start to get frustrated, if that happens and they break, there cannot be situation worse that that. The two maoists will have to fight each other, fund all the movements, kill people, and the stories continue. The effect will ripple to India, and India will intervene like in Bhutan.
Lots of bad news more to come people, keep your fingures crossed ......
